My second session on Wednesday was more about the future, which is the kind of session i like as it gets my brain thinking and buzzing around with ideas and opportunities. The Session was called 20:20 vision and the Gartner Analyst was Steve Prentice.
The format of this session was to look at where we are how we got here and then instead of making forecasts or predictions – Steve was going to suggest some projections.
These notes bounce around a bit as it wasn’t a standard session it was intended to stimulate thought and suggest a potential future.
The life cycle of a revolution
In the 1920s Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev described 1920s, the regular “S-shaped” cycles of technological innovation (each lasting 50 to 60 years) that drive the world economy – In 2003 Carlota Perez in 2004 produced “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital” and built upon Kondratiev’s model and introduced 4 stages:
(1 & 2 are supply side innovation)
(3 & 4 are demand side innovation)
Some key dates of our current revolution:
- 15th November 1971 – Intel launches 4004 microprocessor
- 12th August 1981 – IBM introduce the 5150 the IBM PC
- 6 August 1991 – Web made available to the public
- 10th January 2001 – wikipedia is created
- August 2003 – Myspace goes live
- 4 February 2004 – Facebook goes live
- August 2004 – Google goes live with expanded offering
- 23 April 2005 – you tube goes live
- 21 March 2006 – twitter goes live
Projection – We won’t see any new technologies over the next 15 years – but we will see an increase in applications built upon existing technology that enable people to consume information and engage with stuff better and more efficiently
- global ip traffic is doubling every 2 years
- mobile traffic is doubling every year (games consoles, digital photo frames, tv’s fridges etc)
- currently 60 billion smart devices
The internet is big and getting bigger – It is very hard to explain to people how big the web is – a trillion web pages – 250 million websites
Projection – It will take 8 years to get the remaining population of the world connected to the internet. This is SO SIGNIFICANT you need to pause and consider your business model in this new context?
Device and Data Proliferation will be significant
15 petabytes of information every day – This is huge, in fact i can’t really imagine what all this data looks like, however some common references say that we produce more information in a day 1500 time greater than the contents of the library of congress which has 32 million books on 650 miles of bookshelves. again we produce more than that every day?
Just to give some context Steve said:
A book is a printed kindle - A library is a like a physical media centre
This did put a smile on my face, but also made me think that one day i’m sure we will actually have to explain stuff in this way!!
To get a sense of where we are going we need to understand the drivers:
Simply put we are naturally social creatures:
- 74% of people visit social networking site and remain on their for an average of 6 hours a month
- 50% of facebook users logon everyday
- 22% of online time is in social networks
- 1 billion users across all social media
Practically no one makes a purchase decision without referencing either google or social networks very pervasive
We can now, as individuals build our own infrastructure online and pretty much for free.
The younger minded people of today (notice i write “minded”) often say “why do i need to know something if i can just ask google” – however people have a naive assumption that what appears in google is the “truth”. Search results are also available in “klingon”!!
Entertainment and Recreation
Gaming is bigger than the movie industry
Average online gamers are 34 years old and core gamers play 48 hours per week?
Social gaming – farmville has more than 60 million active users – 100 million dollar business
What is interesting about this is almost at the same time i was in this session Gartner analyst Andrea DiMaio tweeted the following:
It is already starting to show in people’s thinking about Government and I’ve already posted some thoughts on gaming and government in my World of Govcraft posts:
- SMS 6.3 billion messages a day
- 150 million mobile facebook users
- more than 100% penetration in some countries
- “to text” is now a verb
- mobile data traffic is rising
- for the first time in september 2010 mobile data traffic exceeded mobile voice traffic
online transactions are growing
social gaming is a huge industry
is access to the web a basic human right and should it be free?
Net neutrality (wikipedia definition)
the power to control what a user can do on the internet
Interestingly Hollywood and China had shared agendas about controlling the web?
Looking forward – the dark side
The web is full of opinion, not facts
Can you distinguish the fact from fiction (if users are influenced by peers, maybe this will be an important issue to consider)
Do a search of your “company name” and the word “I hate” and see the results?
Looking forward- context and cloud
Taking advantage of location and time
Cloud is inevitable but not without risks
Resistance is futile – you WILL be assimilated, i’ve heard this before, but considering this was a future session, it really will be the future.
Enterprises are losing control – the outside is coming in – the walls are tumbling – consumers have choices and they are bringing them with them…wherever they go.
- what new institutions will arise – what does a company look like?
- what new business models will emerge
- working practices – what does a career look like? portfolio working
- social integration or tribalism
- social innovation or technology innovation – how can we manage this effectively
- does technology free us or enslave us - we need downtime and we need to disconnect to get balance “off the web is off life”
- what is the role of government?
- will the internet break apart and become the splinternet
Societal change despite constraints
issues – people, resources, geography
- 2.7 billion will face water shortages
- 60% live in urban areas
- 24% is over 65
Question: how will tech best serve a global population that is growing, aging and urbanised to levels never seen before?
People need to understand anthropology, social sciences, behavioural psychology to address the societal changes.
The session ended on a slide which spoke about TRUST, a number of questions relating to this and how we should be considering these from a personal and business perspective. We all need to think about this question in a future which will clearly be very VERY different to what we see today.